Wednesday, November 26, 2008

Grading the Pollsters: Part 2 - Battleground States

In this part, we rank the pollsters based upon their performance in the "battleground" states. Following the same methodology that we did in Part 1 of this post (sourcing data from, we come up with the following ranking:

  1. SurveyUSA
  2. Tied between Mason-Dixon and ARG
The worst in Florida were FOX News/Rasmussen who had it for McCain by 1 point. Condolences to Hannity, O'Reilly and Van Susteren.

North Carolina
  1. Tied between FOX News/Rassmussen and Reuters/Zogby (that's a surprise!)
  2. SurveyUSA
Zogby is the worst amongst pollsters. Polling insiders avoid Zogby numbers like the plague. So it's a surprise that they did so well in NC.

  1. Tied between FOX News/Rassmussen and Reuters/Zogby (hmmmm...)
  2. SurveyUSA
I might have to rethink my opinion of Zogby.

  1. Indy Star/Selzer - Incidentally, this was the only pollster that called Indiana correctly for Obama.
  2. Tied between ARG and Downs Center/SurveyUSA (they called it a tie)
Zogby was the worst here. They called it for McCain by 5 points. Not even close. Whew! Just when I thought I was going to have to rethink my opinion of them, they come through and stay true to form.

  1. Univ of Cincinnati/Ohio Poll
  2. Tied between Reuters/Zogby (these guys again) and SurveyUSA
The worst in Ohio were Mason-Dixon who were the only ones that had it for McCain (by 2 points).

  1. Reuters/Zogby (Wow!!)
  2. SurveyUSA
The worst in Virginia was Mason-Dixon who had it for Obama only by 3 points (vs. the final margin of 6.3 points).

So it would seem that while Zogby performed really poorly in the National polls, they were pretty decent in the battleground states. Given that we elect our president through the electoral college, it augurs well for them in future Presidential Elections.

Mason-Dixon performed shockingly poorly in the battleground polls and that should concern them a bit, especially because they performed really well in the National polls.

And with that, we close the lid on the 2008 United States Presidential Elections. Congratulations to Barack Obama and Joe Biden! Hope they can turn this ship around. Sphere: Related Content

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